If it feels like the housing market is starting to change again, you’re right. Across the country, home prices are cooling, and nearly half of America’s largest cities are now seeing values decline.
According to the latest S&P Case-Shiller Index, home prices rose just 1.5% in August compared to last year, which is the slowest growth since 2023. Out of the 20 major metros tracked, nine saw outright price drops and 13 grew more slowly than the national average.
That’s a big shift from the bidding wars and lightning-fast sales we saw a couple of years ago. For the first time in a while, buyers in many parts of the country are gaining leverage. They can negotiate, ask for credits, and take a little more time before making an offer.
🌎 National Slowdown, Local Reality
Markets like Tampa, Miami, Dallas, Phoenix, Denver, Los Angeles, and even San Diego are all showing signs of softening. These were some of the hottest housing markets during the pandemic boom, and now they’re leading the correction.
But it’s not all bad news. This kind of “reset” can actually be healthy, especially after the record-setting price jumps of 2021 and 2022. Economists are calling it a market normalization, a return to something more sustainable.
🌴 What’s Happening Here in San Diego
Here at home, the median price of an existing single-family home in San Diego County just dipped below $1 million. According to the California Association of Realtors, the median fell from $1.025 million to $990,000 in September, a 3.4% drop month-over-month and roughly 1% lower year-over-year.
That might sound dramatic, but it’s actually in line with the state trend. Across California, the median price fell about 1.7% to $883,640, which is typical for this time of year.
In other words, prices are easing, not crashing. After years of huge gains, the San Diego housing market is catching its breath.
💡 Why It’s Happening
There are three big factors shaping what comes next.
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Inventory: We’re seeing more homes hit the market, giving buyers more choices and slowing down price growth.
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Interest Rates: Mortgage rates have recently dropped to around 6.19%, the lowest in over a year, as the Fed hints at possible cuts in 2026. Lower rates could pull buyers off the sidelines and reignite demand.
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Local Economy: San Diego’s job market remains strong, supported by industries like biotech, defense, and education. That stability helps cushion us from sharper downturns seen in other states.
So while the national headlines might sound alarming, San Diego’s market still looks resilient. It’s just becoming more balanced than before.
🏡 What It Means for You
If you’re a buyer, this could finally be the window you’ve been waiting for. You may face less competition and more room to negotiate before rates potentially drop and demand picks up again.
If you’re a home-seller, realistic pricing and great presentation matter more than ever. Homes that are priced right are still selling quickly, and sometimes even attracting multiple offers.
📲 Let’s Talk About Your Neighborhood
Every neighborhood in San Diego moves at its own pace. If you’re wondering what’s happening with your home’s value, let’s connect.
You can call or text me at 858-335-4597 for a personalized market snapshot. I’ll help you understand what’s really going on in your zip code, whether you’re thinking of buying, selling, or just staying informed.
Until next week's San Diego Housing Market Mondays, have a great first week of November!
