If you have been scrolling Zillow at night and wondering, “Is now actually a good time to buy a house?”, you are not alone. Buyers all over the country are asking the same question as mortgage rates drift down from their recent peaks and more sellers start adjusting their expectations.
The short answer is that there is no one perfect time for everyone. And if you are thinking about buying a property in San Diego, the story looks a little different than the national headlines.
What Is Happening In The Housing Market Nationally?
Across the U.S., conditions for buyers are slowly improving compared to the frenzy of the last few years.
Mortgage rates have eased off the highs we saw in 2023 and early 2024. The average 30 year fixed rate is no longer sitting in the 7-percent range like it was at the peak. Even a small drop in rates can make a noticeable difference in your monthly payment.
Home prices are not crashing, but the pace of growth has cooled. In many markets, sellers are doing more price reductions and homes are sitting a bit longer before going under contract. The national median home price is still much higher than it was before the pandemic, which is why affordability still feels tight for a lot of buyers.
Most forecasts suggest that rates may not fall dramatically in the next couple of years. Many experts expect 30 year rates to stay in the general 6 percent range, unless there is a major shift in the economy.
So nationally, buyers are dealing with a tradeoff. Rates are a bit lower than they were at the peak, prices are not rising as fast, and competition has cooled. But homes are still expensive compared to incomes, and waiting for 3 or 4 percent rates again might mean waiting a very long time.
How Does San Diego Compare?
San Diego is still a high cost market, but we are no longer in the “everything sells in three days for way over asking” era.
Recent local data shows that:
- The median sale price in the city of San Diego is sitting in the low $900k
- Across San Diego County, the median price is in the high $800k
- Homes are taking longer to sell than they did a couple of years ago (appox 35 days)
- The majority of homes are now selling at or even under list price (96%-98% of original list price)
In other words, prices are holding near record levels, but they are not racing away from buyers like they did in 2021 and 2022. The market is still competitive, but it feels more balanced.
Detached vs Attached Homes
If you are dreaming of a single family home with a yard, the numbers will look different from condos and townhomes.
In San Diego County, detached homes are at $990,000 (median list price, which is 2.9% lower year-on-year compared with 2024) or higher, depending on the neighborhood. Condos and townhomes come in lower at $665,000 (2.1% lower year-on-year, compared to 2024) which is why they are such a popular option for first time buyers.
So if you want to get into the San Diego market but do not want to stretch every dollar, an attached home can be a great way to start building equity while you figure out your long term plans.
Timing: Why Fall And Winter Can Quietly Favor Buyers
You might have seen national articles about the “best week of the year” to buy a home. The exact dates change, but the pattern often applies here too.
In San Diego, fall and early winter usually bring:
- Fewer active buyers
- More listings that have been sitting for a while
- Sellers who are a bit more open to negotiating
You may not see the huge seasonal price swings that colder markets experience, but you can feel the difference in competition. Instead of 10 buyers fighting over the same home, you might be dealing with possibly one or two other interested parties. That alone can change your experience as a buyer.
So... Is It A Good Time To Buy In San Diego?
This might sound cliche, but it really depends on your personal situation. The below criteria may help evaluate your current circumstances:
It May Be A Good Time To Buy If:
- You have a stable income and at least six months worth of emergency savings
- You have a down payment and can comfortably handle a payment at today’s rates
- You plan to stay in the home at least 5 to 7 years
- You find a property you truly like at a price that fits your budget
In that case, the current San Diego market actually offers some advantages:
- More choices than a couple of years ago
- A little more time to think before you write an offer
- Sellers who are more willing to negotiate on price, repairs, or closing costs
- The option to refinance later if rates move down
Waiting for “perfect” rates can backfire. If mortgage rates drop meaningfully, a lot of buyers may jump back in at once and push competition and prices higher again. And yes, this really can happen.
You Might Want To Wait If:
On the other hand, it might not be your time yet if:
- You do not feel secure in your job or income
- You are still working on paying down high interest debt
- You are not sure you will stay in San Diego for more than a couple of years
- The payment at today’s rates would leave you feeling stressed every month
If that sounds like you, it can be smarter to pause, keep renting, tighten up your finances, and use this time to learn the market. That way, when you are ready, you can move quickly and confidently.
A Simple Framework To Decide
Here is a simple framework I share with my own clients in San Diego. Ask yourself four questions:
- Can I comfortably afford the monthly payment and upkeep today?
Do not just look at principal and interest. Add taxes, insurance, HOA dues if there are any, and a realistic budget for maintenance. - Will I be here long enough for this to make sense?
Because buying comes with upfront costs, most people need to stay put at least 5 years to really benefit. - Does this specific home work for my actual life?
Think about commute, schools, outdoor space, and what you do on a daily basis. A home in Poway, Rancho Bernardo, or Carmel Valley offers a different lifestyle than a condo downtown or near the beach. - Is owning better than my realistic renting option right now?
Compare what you would pay to rent a similar place to your after tax cost of owning. For some people, especially at the higher price points, renting a bit longer while strengthening your financial position can still be the right call.
If you can honestly answer “yes” to most of these, it might be a very good time for you to buy, even if the news headlines still feel noisy.
The Bottom Line For San Diego Buyers
Nationally, the story is that mortgage rates have eased from their highs, home price growth is cooling, and markets are slowly shifting back toward buyers.
Locally, San Diego is following that pattern in its own way. Prices are still high, but they are not surging like before. Homes are taking longer to sell. More sellers are willing to negotiate.
No one can promise you the exact bottom for either rates or prices. What you can do is make a clear, informed decision based on:
- Today’s numbers in San Diego
- Your financial readiness
- How long you plan to stay
- The lifestyle you want for yourself and your family
If you are thinking about buying in San Diego or North County San Diego and want to talk through your options, I'm here to help (and I'm not sales-y). Reach out to me at 858-335-4597 and we can discuss what makes the most sense for you.
Until next week's edition of San Diego Housing Market Mondays.
